Question Period Note: JOB VACANCY DATA FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2023

On March 19th, Statistics Canada released job vacancy data for the fourth quarter of 2023 from the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (JVWS).

There were 678,500 job vacancies among Canadian employers in the fourth quarter of 2023, down 3.6% (-25,400) from the third quarter of 2023.

Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the job vacancy rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%, reflecting lower vacancies and higher payroll employment.

There was an average of 1.8 unemployed persons per job vacancy in Canada in the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase of 0.1 compared to the previous quarter. This increase is aligned with other labour market data indicating a labour market that has continued to ease in the third quarter of 2023.

Nevertheless, the number of job vacancies remained elevated when compared with the pre-pandemic level (an average of 542,560 in 2019). A high number of job vacancies can potentially signal a strong labour demand and/or a mismatch between the unemployed and available jobs.

Data collected in the JVWS are critical for the analysis of labour market tightness, in conjunction with data from the Labour Force Survey.

The job vacancy rate refers to the share of jobs that are unfilled out of all available payroll jobs. It represents the number of job vacancies expressed as a percentage of labour demand; that is, the sum of all occupied and vacant jobs.

In addition to the number of job vacancies for which employers are recruiting externally, the JVWS collects information on vacancies by occupation, the minimum level of education and work experience required, the wage or salary offered, whether the vacant positions are full-time, part-time, permanent, temporary or seasonal, and the duration of recruitment efforts.

The JVWS questionnaire is distributed on a quarterly basis to about 100,000 business locations operating in Canada (out of a population of close to 1.2 million locations) that have at least two employees (excluding religious organizations, private households, international and extraterritorial public administrations, and government administrations).

Statistics Canada will release the job vacancy data from the JVWS for the first quarter of 2024 on June 18, 2024.

Overall

The number of job vacancies in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 3.6% lower than in the previous quarter.

Compared to the record high number of job vacancies observed in the second quarter of 2022 (at 983,600), the number of job vacancies has fallen by 305,100 (-31.0%) to 678,500 in the fourth quarter of 2023. Despite this decline, the number of job vacancies remained high compared to its level before the COVID-19 pandemic (an average of 542,560 in 2019).

By occupation (data NOT adjusted for seasonality):

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, job vacancies fell in all the 10 broad occupational groups. The largest decline was observed among sales and service occupations (-32.3% or -95,200), which accounted for nearly half (45.4%) of the total year-over-year decline in vacancies (-24.5% or -209,600). Within this broad occupational group, food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations (-23,200 to 35,000), retail salespersons and visual merchandisers (-19,400 to 29,100) and cooks (-6,100 to 14,100) saw the largest year-over-year drops in vacancies.

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, the number of job vacancies among trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations declined by 35,000 (-21.4%). This included declines in vacancies for transport truck drivers (-3,900 to 17,800) and construction trades helpers and labourers (-3,200 to 12,600) the two occupations with the highest number of vacancies in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 2023.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, job vacancies in health occupations were down by 4,200 (-4.5%) to 89,900 on a year-over-year basis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the number of vacant positions within health occupations continued to be the highest for registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses (28,700), nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates (20,900), and licensed practical nurses (13,300). Together, these three occupations accounted for 70.0% of the total vacancies in health occupations. On a year-over-year basis, vacancies in the fourth quarter fell by 1,900 (-8.3%) in nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates, while vacancies in registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses as well as licensed practical nurses, were little changed over this period.

By province (data adjusted for seasonality):

Between the third and fourth quarters of 2023, job vacancies fell in five provinces, Prince Edward Island (-18.5% to 2,400), Nova Scotia (-10.0% to 15,900), Ontario (-6.4% to 230,700), Alberta (-4.4% to 81,600), and Quebec (-2.5% to 164,600).

The number of vacancies was little changed in the remaining provinces.

By educational requirements (data NOT adjusted for seasonality)

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, the number of job vacancies fell across all the educational levels sought by employers. The largest decline was recorded in positions requiring a high school diploma or less (-31.1% or -154,600), while the number of vacancies for positions requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher fell more moderately (-16.1% or -18,200).

Unemployed people per vacancy (data adjusted for seasonality):

In the fourth quarter of 2023, there were 1.8 unemployed people per job vacancy, an increase compared to 1.7 the previous quarter and the record low of 1.1 in the second quarter of 2022.

Comparing unemployment and job vacancies can give an indication of how easily unemployed workers find jobs and if workforce skills are in line with those required by employers. A low unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio can indicate that it may be relatively harder for employers to find workers.

Offered hourly wages (data NOT adjusted for seasonality):

In light of the relatively high number of job vacancies (compared to pre-pandemic) and high rate of inflation, the potential impact of unmet labour demand on offered hourly wages is being followed closely.

Between the fourth quarters of 2022 and 2023, the average offered hourly wage grew 6.4% to $26.50, driven partially by a shift in the composition of job vacancies towards higher-offered-wage occupations. In comparison, year-over-year average hourly wages of all employees (as measured in the Labour Force Survey) grew 5.0% in the fourth quarter.

Holding the composition of job vacancies by occupation fixed at the average of the fourth quarter of 2022, the year-over-year growth in offered hourly wages would have been 4.3%.