Grants and Contributions:

Grant or Award spanning more than one fiscal year (2017-2018 to 2018-2019).

Proper simulation and prediction of Bow and Elbow River flows, is a critical need for The City of Calgary tox000D
better address challenges facing the city of 1.2 million people particularly, under a changing climate andx000D
landscape. This task is hampered by several challenges pertaining to uncertainties in hydrologic processx000D
representation, parametrization, and simulation. In this research, we aim to address these challenges and set upx000D
an advanced physically-based hydrological model for the Bow and Elbow River Basins ending at Calgary. Forx000D
this purpose, we will use MESH (Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie) modelling system.x000D
MESH is a Canadian distributed physically-based model that couples the Canadian Land Surface Schemex000D
(CLASS) to the routing module of WATFLOOD hydrological model. It also includes an advanced hydrologicalx000D
process representation of lateral flows. This allows MESH to account for both the water and energy balancex000D
between land and atmosphere, which is key to adequate hydrologic process representation in this region (andx000D
cold regions in general), where water and energy are closely tied together through phase change. Our proposedx000D
methodology is critically important for streamflow prediction in the Bow and Elbow River Basins, becausex000D
their streamflow is dominated by snowmelt and the freeze and thaw cycles have a significant impact on thex000D
movement of water within the soil. We will also take into account engineered water management featuresx000D
affecting the water flow such as dams, reservoirs and diversions. This work will allow us to explore andx000D
characterize the different sources of uncertainty in the future flows in the region, and consequently, will enablex000D
us to improve our hydrologic process understanding and modelling in cold regions of Canada. The modellingx000D
platform we will develop is expected to arm The City of Calgary with a state-of-the-art tool for improvedx000D
prediction, risk management and disaster response, decision making around major infrastructure planning,x000D
water supply and demand management, and prioritization of hydro-climatic adaptation measures.