Question Period Notes
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In accordance with the Access to Information Act, the government proactively publishes the package of question period notes that were prepared by a government institution for the minister and that were in use on the last sitting day in June and December.
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• The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its Economic Outlook on June 3.
• The Middle East conflict is expected to weigh on growth and put upward pressure on headline inflation through higher energy prices. Given the high level of uncertainty, the OECD presents two different scenarios for the global economy. The reference forecast assumes that disruptions remain relatively short-lived, with energy production in the Gulf gradually recovering from late in 2026Q2. Energy prices are expected to gradually ease from mid-2026 onward, broadly in line with current futures market expectations as of 26 May: scenario assumes Brent crude oil price peaking at an average quarterly value just under USD 102 per barrel, with the average annual value of USD 92 per barrel in 2026 and USD 80 per barrel in 2027.
• Canada continues to face significant external headwinds from U.S. tariffs, global trade uncertainty, and the conflict in the Middle East.
• Despite these challenges, the Canadian economy continues to adapt and show resilience. Households are spending, businesses are investing, exports are diversifying, and affordability is improving in several key areas.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) was flat (-0.1% in annual rates) in the first quarter of 2026, following a 1.0% decline in the fourth quarter (revised down from -0.6%). This was well below market expectations of a 1.5% gain (Bloomberg median).
Combined with a 4.7% increase in GDP inflation, this drove nominal GDP (the broadest measure of the tax base) up 4.6% in the first quarter. The level of nominal GDP was $7 billion lower than projected in the 2026 Spring Economic Update.
• Total consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased to 2.8% (year over year) in April from 2.4% in March, below market expectations of 3.1%.
• Despite the continued rise in energy prices, headline inflation has remained within the Bank of Canada’s target range for 28 consecutive months.
• The IMF has released its April 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) on April 14, projecting global growth to moderate in 2026 compared to 2025.
• The Middle East conflict is expected to weigh on growth and put upward pressures on headline inflation on the back of higher energy prices. The reference forecast assumes that the conflict will have limited duration, intensity, and scope; such that the disruptions will start fading as of mid-2026, consistent with commodity futures prices as of March 10.
• Employment rose by 54,000 in November, above market expectation for a loss of 2,500 jobs.
• The unemployment rate declined to 6.5% from 6.9% while markets were expecting it to edge up to 7.0%. The labour force participation rate fell to 65.1% (-0.2 p.p.).
• The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its Economic Outlook on December 2.
• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.6% (annual rates) in the third quarter of 2025, more than reversing the 1.8% decline in the second quarter (revised down from -1.6%). This was well above market expectations of 0.5% (Bloomberg median).
• Combined with a gain in GDP inflation of 3.2%, this drove nominal GDP 5.9% higher. Sentence redacted.
• Employment rose by a modest 8,800 in May, above expectations of a decline of 10,000.
• The unemployment rate increased to 7.0% (+0.1 p.p.), in line with market expectations. The labour force participation was unchanged at 65.3%.
• Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 2.2 per cent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025, following an increase of 2.1 per cent in the fourth quarter (revised down from 2.6 per cent). Growth was stronger than market expectations of 1.7 per cent (Bloomberg median).
• Combined with a 2.6 per cent increase in GDP inflationinformation redacted.