Question Period Note: Merchandise trade impact of BC floods

Impacts on families, communities and infrastructure take priority; however, flooding in BC affects key ports of entry and exit. We estimate that about 12% of exports and 9% of imports are affected.

• In 2019, $81 billion of Canada's exports (15% of total) transited via BC ports of exit. We estimate $64 billion were exported though ports of exit directly impacted by flooding (12% of total). The most important ports of exit are the Port of Vancouver and the Pacific Highway.
• In 2019, $57 billion of Canada's imports (about 10% of total) cleared through BC ports of entry. We estimate that $52 billion were imported via ports of entry impacted by flooding (9% of total). Imports that arrive through BC ports of entry are underreported due to processing.
• Trains are beginning to move again but it will take time for the backlog of incoming and outgoing products to clear. [My colleague Minister Alghabra would be in a better position to elaborate.]
• By dollar value, trade with the U.S. will be the most affected flow. However, the flows through the affected ports represent only 5% of Canada's exports to the U.S. and 6% of imports from the U.S.
• The most impacted export markets are China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Taiwan, with more than 50% of exports to those markets passing through the affected ports of exit. The most impacted import countries of origin are China, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, and South Korea.

According to 2021 year-to-date (up to September) 10.6% of Canadian exports transited through the affected ports in British Columbia. For 2020, the share was 12.9%. Due to the pandemic we believe 2019 to be the most representative data for the current environment. 11.5% of Canadian exports transited through the affected ports in 2019.

In 2019, $81.2 billion of merchandise exports (14.9% of Canada's total merchandise exports) transited via B.C. ports of exit
- Of that we estimate $63.9 billion were exported through ports of exit in areas directly impacted by flooding (11.7% of Canada's total merchandise exports)
- This single most important destination market for those exports was the U.S., but this represented only 4.7% of exports to the U.S.
- Next were China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Taiwan with more than 50% of exports to those markets impacted.
- Products most impacted were Coal, Potash, Canola, Wood pulp, and Copper ores.

In 2019, $57.0 billion of Canadian merchandise imports (9.5%) were cleared through BC ports of entry/exit*
- Of that, $51.6 billion we estimate moved through ports of entry impacted directly by flooding (8.6% of Canada's total merchandise imports)
- United States, once again accounted for largest share, but represented only 5.8% of total imports from U.S.
- Next were China, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, and South Korea.
- Top imported products were Aviation fuel, Cars, Zinc ores and Uranium.
*Note that imports are logged as point of customs clearance and therefore some imports may be processed at other locations, such as closer to final destination for example, Toronto. All of these import figures are an under-estimate.

The largest of the ports we consider directly impacted are:
- The Port of Vancouver (by far most important), Pacific Highway, Kingsgate, Abbotsford-Huntington, Vancouver International Airport

Note: 2020 data will available in the coming weeks and the figures in this memo will be updated. We do not expect any major changes to the underlying story.

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