Question Period Note: Atlantic Mackeral Consuption by Predators

• I recognize the economic importance of the mackerel fishery to harvesters in Atlantic Canada and Quebec and I am committed to managing this fishery to ensure the long-term sustainability of the stock for future generations.
• The 2025 Atlantic mackerel stock assessment concluded that the stock remains at low levels, with no notable augmentation since 2015.

Total Allowable Catch
• I understand the hardship that the ongoing closure of the commercial mackerel fishery is having on harvesters and coastal communities. I also understand that purchasing mackerel for bait from other sources has become very expensive.
• The Government has chosen to keep the personal-use bait fishery open for the 2025 and 2026 fishing seasons. The continued opening should allow for growth of the stock while providing harvesters an opportunity to source bait, which is so vital for coastal communities across Atlantic Canada and Quebec.
• Atlantic mackerel recreational, food, social and ceremonial fisheries will continue as these important harvests make up a small percentage of overall removals and are not expected to significantly affect rebuilding.
• The Government of Canada is committed to taking strong action to protect spawning fish and help rebuild the stock.

• This stock has been in the Critical Zone of the Precautionary Approach Framework since 2011, and is subject to the Fish Stock provisions of the Fisheries Act, which mandates DFO to promote sustainability and implement a rebuilding plan. The 2023 and 2024 spawning stock biomass were estimated at 32 per cent and 35 per cent of the limit reference point, placing the stock in the Critical Zone of the precautionary approach (PA) with a very high probability (greater than 95 per cent).
• In 2022 and 2023, the commercial and bait fisheries were closed due to the depleted status of the stock. Recreational and Food, Social and Ceremonial (FSC) fisheries remained open, as removals from these fisheries are limited. Other permitted removals include catches for scientific sampling, a bluefin tuna bait exemption, and bycatch.
• The bait fishery re-opened in 2024 with a TAC of 470 tonnes (t) and bait landings totaled 440 t, with Gulf Region accounting for 71 per cent of catches, followed by Maritimes (15 per cent), Quebec ( eight per cent), and Newfoundland and Labrador (five per cent).
• For the 2025 and 2026 seasons, a 500 t TAC is established. This includes removals from the bait fishery (440 t), the bluefin tuna bait exemption (~20 t), scientific sampling (~20 t), and bycatch (~20 t).
• For the recreational fishery, two new temporary management measures are implemented to limit dead discards and support rebuilding of the stock:
o Removal of minimum size: to address mortality due to high discards of undersized fish caught while fishing recreationally. Currently, Section 49.01(b) of the Atlantic Fishery Regulations, 1985 (AFR) prohibits the possession of Atlantic mackerel less than 26.8 cm in length. Varying the minimum size to 0 cm means that recreational harvesters could retain all fish caught up to their daily possession limit of 20 mackerel without discarding large numbers of undersized fish that typically die after release.
o Reduce gear allowance: Section 49.01(d) of the AFR, prohibits fishing with more than five lines or one fishing line with six hooks. This fishing gear allowance results in greater fishing capacity beyond the 20 mackerel daily possession limit. Varying the gear type to one line with three hooks would align with how sport fisheries are regulated under the Maritime Provinces Fishery Regulations and reduce effort in the recreational fishery. Both the minimum size and the gear type can be modified for the recreational fishery through a variation order issued by a Regional Director General.
• In response to industry concerns about predation, DFO Science conducted an investigation of predation pressure on mackerel by various predators in Canadian and U.S. waters for the 2023 assessment, which suggests an overall increase in predation-induced mackerel mortality over time.
• Annual consumption by Northern gannets is estimated to be between 11,000 to 23,000 over the last 10 years, while the annual consumption of mackerel by grey seals was estimated to be between 7,000 and 13,000 t given the current size the of grey seal population.
• In light of the moratorium, DFO has collaborated with industry partners to collect mackerel samples throughout their northern distribution in 2022, 2023, and 2024 to support stock assessments and for genetic research on the stock contingents.
• In response to industry concerns about spawning that would not be considered in the stock assessment, DFO Science completed additional egg/larval surveys in Western and Southern Newfoundland in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 to determine if significant spawning is occurring outside of the historical spawning area. Results were presented during the winter 2023 stock assessment meeting demonstrated that this is not the case, as mackerel spawning activity in Western Newfoundland was much lower and not observed in Southern Newfoundland.
• Atlantic mackerel are a schooling pelagic fish that form dense aggregations and stick to a narrow temperature range (7-16°C). They are highly migratory, moving into the Gulf of
St. Lawrence and thelversen northward annually to spawn and feed. Accordingly, Atlantic mackerel tend to move to Newfoundland waters later in the season relative to other parts of Atlantic Canada.
• Because of this high degree of local aggregations, mackerel are easy to harvest at very low levels and high overall population abundance cannot be inferred from high catches in localized areas.
• The U.S. fishery has remained opened but has seen significant decreases in their commercial quota. Canada will continue to engage U.S. colleagues on possible cooperative management, as both countries have recognized the stock needs to rebuild.

If pressed on the bait fishery management plan
• The Government of Canada will open the personal-use bait fishery again this year with a quota of 440 tonnes to provide harvesters an opportunity to lower operational costs without jeopardizing rebuilding efforts.
• The competitive bait quota will open in late summer 2025.

If pressed on the recreational fishery
• For the recreational fishery, I have reduced the gear allowance to reduce fishing capacity and have removed the minimum size of Atlantic mackerel that can be retained to address mortality due to high discard rates of undersized fish caught.

If pressed on the latest science advice on Atlantic mackerel:
• The most recent stock assessment occurred in February 2025, and determined that the spawning stock biomass for mackerel remained relatively stable in the critical zone of the Precautionary Approach in 2023 and 2024, after reaching low levels in 2021 and 2022. The next assessment is due to occur in March 2027.
• The stock has been dominated by young fish in recent years and there have been no signs of a notable recruitment event since 2015 (i.e., no year in which a large pulse of new fish were added to the stock) since 2015.
• Available evidence indicates that stock rebuilding potential is currently limited by fewer older fish, low recruitment, and high predation pressure.
• The stock’s decline into the Critical Zone was associated with historical landings higher than sustainable levels.

If pressed on observations by harvesters of high stock abundance
• Atlantic mackerel are a schooling pelagic fish; therefore, seeing large schools of this species is not unusual, even when the overall population is small.
• I know my department values the perspectives and observations of fish harvesters and continues to work with them to collect data for the ongoing mackerel assessment, ensuring that we have the best science possible to inform future decisions.

If pressed on the impacts of seal predation
• Mackerel are a key prey source in the Northwest Atlantic ecosystem. They are an important food source for Northern gannets and consumed by other seabirds, seals, groundfish, tunas, whales, and dolphins.
• Canadian and U.S. scientists have both studied predation on mackerel, finding an overall increase in mackerel mortality from predation over time varying significantly year to year.
• Mackerel contribute only about four per cent of the grey seal’s diet. While any increase in seal abundance will increase the number of mackerel consumed, Northern gannets are estimated to consume more mackerel than grey seals.
• As in most cases, when a fish stock is low, predators are likely to take a larger share of the remaining stock.
• Analysis of predation helps my department include ecosystem considerations in stock assessments and advice.