Question Period Note: Greenhouse gas emissions trends and projections in Canada

Greenhouse gas emissions trends and projections in Canada

• The Government of Canada is committed to meeting and exceeding its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, and the Government’s climate plan is working. Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions are less than they were in 2015, and they are projected to be on a downward trajectory to 2030.
• In 2017, Canada’s emissions were 716 megatonnes, a net decrease of 15 megatonnes from 2005 levels. These results show that greenhouse gas emissions can decline while GDP grows.
• Canada’s emissions are projected to decline to 592 megatonnes in 2030—223 megatonnes less than what was projected prior to adopting and implementing Canada’s climate plan in 2016.
• Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decline further as federal, provincial, and territorial governments continue to take climate action. The latest projections also do not fully account for recent investments in clean technology and public transit.

• In 2017, the most recent data available, Canada’s GHG emissions were 716 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2 eq), a net decrease of 15 Mt or 2.0% from 2005 emissions (see Figure ES–1 below). During this period, Canada’s economy grew more rapidly than its GHG emissions. As a result, the emissions intensity for the entire economy (GHG per GDP) has declined by 36% since 1990 and 20% since 2005.• The decline in emissions intensity can be attributed to fuel switching, increases in efficiency, the modernization of industrial processes and structural changes in the economy.

• From 2016 to 2017, Canada’s emissions increased by 8 Mt. This fluctuation is due to the combined effect of multiple factors, some as part of longstanding trends and some more unique, including: an increase in the percentage of non-emitting sources of electricity (-2.6 Mt between 2016 and 2017); events impacting oil sands production, including the 2016 fire in Fort McMurray, Alberta and the resumption of activities in 2017 (+8Mt between 2016 and 2017); variability in winter weather, which influences emissions related to heating (+2.9 Mt between 2016 and 2017); variations in production levels and the use of fossil fuels in industrial sectors (+0.1 Mt between 2016 and 2017).

• In 2017, the Energy sector (consisting of Stationary Combustion, Transport and Fugitive Sources) emitted 583 Mt of greenhouse gases, or 82% of Canada’s total GHG emissions (see Figure ES–2 below). The remaining emissions were largely generated by the Agriculture and the industrial processes and product use (IPPU) sectors (approximately 8% each), with smaller contributions from the Waste sector (3%). In 2017, the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector removed 24 Mt of CO2 from the atmosphere.
• The GHG inventory includes emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). Canada’s emissions profile is similar to that of most industrialized countries, in that CO2 is the largest contributor to total emissions, accounting for 80% of total emissions in 2017 (see Figure ES–3 above). The majority of the CO2 emissions in Canada result from the combustion of fossil fuels. CH4 emissions in 2017 amounted to 93 Mt or 13% of Canada’s total. These emissions consist largely of fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas systems, agriculture and landfills. N2O emissions mostly arise from agricultural soil management and transport, and accounted for 38 Mt or 5.3% of Canada’s emissions in 2017. Emissions of synthetic gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3) constituted slightly less than 2%.

• Canada represented approximately 1.6% of global GHG emissions in 2015, and it is one of the highest per capita emitters.

CANADA'S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS AND PROGRESS TO PARIS TARGET

• Canada’s Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections Report – 2018 outlines how Canada will progress to its Paris Agreement target.

• Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) started publishing GHG emissions projections annually in 2011. Since 2015, these projections are reported in stand-alone reports only on years when Canada does not report on its GHG emissions projections to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The 2019 update of the projections to 2030 will be published as part of Canada’s 4th Biennial Report to the UNFCCC, which is due January 1, 2020.

• The analysis presented in the 2018 report incorporates the most up-to-date statistics on GHG emissions and energy available at the time that the technical modeling was completed in the summer of 2018, and is based on scenarios of emissions projections using the Energy, Emissions and Economy Model for Canada (E3MC).

• Provincial/territorial and federal government departments were consulted during the development of the projections and were invited to provide their input by September 2018.

• The majority of data and assumptions used for the modeled emissions scenarios have been subject to extensive consultations. For example, the Canadian Energy Regulator (formerly the National Energy Board) has extensive consultation processes in place to ensure their projections of energy demand and supply growth are robust; the data they provided to ECCC reflect those consultations.

• As with all projections, the estimates in this report should be seen as representative of possible outcomes that will, in the end, depend on economic, social and other factors, including future government policies.

• The report presents Canada’s GHG emissions projections under different scenarios.

• First, a Reference Case scenario shows projected GHG emissions based on federal, provincial and territorial policies and measures that were in place as of September 2018. Under this scenario, emissions are projected to be 701 Mt by 2030 (without LULUCF). Compared to the previous Reference Case scenario published in 2017, the latest shows an improvement of 21 Mt. This progress is driven by measures that were implemented in 2018, including:
o regulations to accelerate the phase-out of coal-fired electricity by 2030;
o Natural Resources Canada’s industrial energy management program; and,
o actions taken by provinces and territories under the federal Low Carbon Economy Leadership Fund.

• With the contribution from LULUCF accounting, the Reference Case scenario emissions in 2030 are reduced to 677 Mt.

• The second scenario, the Additional Measures Case, includes federal, provincial and territorial policies and measures that have been announced but not yet fully implemented as of September 2018. This includes, the federal pollution pricing backstop, the Clean Fuel Standard, and the Low Carbon Economy Challenge Fund.

• Under the Additional Measures scenario, emissions are projected to be 616 Mt by 2030 (without LULUCF). In comparison to Canada’s 2017 projections, key changes in the 2018 projections reflect evolving provincial climate policies, most notably Ontario’s rollback of its GHG reduction target by 30 Mt and the repeal of its cap-and-trade legislation. Also reflected in this year’s report are updated forecasts of population growth, and oil and gas prices and production.

• With the contribution from LULUCF accounting, the Additional Measures scenario emissions in 2030 are reduced to 592 Mt. This amounts to a 223 Mt improvement in Canada’s emissions forecast compared to projections prior to the adoption and implementation of Canada’s 2016 climate plan (the Pan-Canadian Framework). This decline, equivalent to approximately 30% of Canada's emissions in 2016, encompasses all economic sectors, demonstrating the effectiveness of Canada’s climate plan.

• Figure 1 below illustrates the progress that has been made since the publication of Canada's Second Biennial Report in 2015.

Question Period notes as provided by the Department to the Minister’s Office