Question Period Note: National Inventory Report – 2021 Edition

National Inventory Report – 2021 Edition

• The National Inventory Report (NIR) is Canada’s authoritative source for greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks in Canada and presents the official estimates used to measure progress Canada is making to reduce its GHG emissions.
• The most recent National Inventory Report summarizes Canada’s GHG emissions from 1990 until the end of 2019, prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• During this time Canada experienced years of economic growth and low unemployment, while in recent years annual GHG emissions in Canada remained flat, hovering between 700 and 730 Mt CO2 eq.
• The government’s strengthened climate plan, A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy, builds on the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, which has resulted in emissions in 2030 being projected to be 227 million tonnes lower than before it was adopted.
• Before the Pan-Canadian Framework absolute emissions in 2019 were forecasted to be 764 Mt (Second Biennial Report, 2015), which is 34 Mt higher than this year’s 2019 data.

• As a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Canada is obligated to prepare an annual national GHG inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks, including annual estimates since 1990. Each year the standardized and detailed NIR and common reporting format tables must be submitted electronically to the UNFCCC no later than April 15.
• Canada’s National Inventory Report, along with other reports such as Canada’s National Communications and Biennial Reports, the greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions projections, annual synthesis reports on the status of implementation of the Pan-Canadian Framework (PCF) on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and future legislated reports, all support Canada’s assessment of its progress in reducing emissions and combatting climate change.
• The UNFCCC is an international treaty established in 1992 to cooperatively address climate change issues. The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Canada ratified the UNFCCC in December 1992, and the Convention came into force in March 1994.
Figure 1: Canadian GHG Emissions and Indexed Trend Emission Intensity (excluding Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry)

• During the period covered in this report, Canada’s economy grew more rapidly than its GHG emissions. As a result, the emissions intensity for the entire economy (GHG per Gross Domestic Product [GDP]) has declined by 37% since 1990 and by 23% since 2005. (Figure 1)
• The GHG inventory includes emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) in the following five sectors: Energy; Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU); Agriculture; Waste; and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF).
• In 2019 GHG emissions were 730 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2 eq), about a 1 Mt or 0.2% increase from 2018 emissions and a net decrease of 9 Mt or 1.1% from 2005 emissions (Figure 1).
• Canada’s GHG emission trends from 2005 - 2019 have remained consistent as emission increases in the oil and gas sector and the transportation sector have been offset by decreases in the electricity and heavy industry sectors.
• In 2019, the Energy sector (consisting of Stationary Combustion, Transport and Fugitive Sources) emitted 589 Mt, or 81% of Canada’s total GHG emissions (Figure 2). The remaining emissions were largely generated by the Agriculture and IPPU sectors (8% and 7% respectively), with contributions from the Waste sector (4%). In 2019 the LULUCF sector emitted 9.9 Mt to the atmosphere.
• Methane (CH4) emissions in 2019 amounted to 98 Mt or 13% of Canada’s total emissions. These emissions are largely from fugitive sources in oil and natural gas systems (37% of total CH4 emissions), agriculture (29% of total CH4 emissions), as well as solid waste disposal (municipal landfills) and industrial wood waste landfills (27% of total CH4 emissions). Nationally, CH4 emissions have increased by 4.5 Mt CO2 eq (4.8%) since 1990, largely due to the development of petroleum resources where there has been a 62% increase in natural gas production, a 29% increase in conventional oil production and an over seven-fold increase in oil sands production. Although, since 2005, CH4 emissions have decreased by 18 Mt (15%).
Figure 2: Breakdown of Canada’s Emissions by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sector (2019)

• The GHG emission and removal estimates contained in Canada’s GHG inventory are developed using methodologies consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
• The Government of Canada is committed to incorporating the best available scientific evidence and working closely with scientists and industry experts to refine and improve our understanding and measuring of emissions.
• In line with the principle of continuous improvement, the underlying data and methodology for estimating emissions are revised over time; hence, total emissions in all years are subject to change as both data and methods are improved.
• The NIR also includes provincial/territorial emissions estimates. Emissions vary significantly by province and territory as a result of factors such as population, energy sources and economic structure. (Figure 3)
Figure 3: GHG Emissions by Province and Territory in 2005, 2010 and 2019

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