Question Period Note: 2026 FOOD PRICE INCREASES

Publication of the 2026 Canada Food Price Report

This Government is committed to building a better future for all Canadians and taking real action to bring down costs and make life more affordable.

The Government has taken concrete actions to make life more affordable:

Introduced legislation to reduce taxes for nearly 22 million Canadians, saving a two-income family up to $840 a year. 

Making the National School Food Program permanent to provide meals for up to 400,000 children.

Launched the Canada Disability Benefit, providing up to $2,400 per year to eligible recipients.

Launched Build Canada Homes to build affordable housing at scale and capitalizing it with an initial $13 billion.

These recent actions build on significant investments in social programs and income supports such as the Canada Child Benefit, the enhanced Canada Workers Benefit and Old Age Security, that improve the ability of Canadians to afford essentials, including food.

These actions are helping Canadians to get ahead.

Canada Food Price Report

The 2026 Canada Food Price Report marks the 16th edition of this publication. The report is produced collaboratively by Dalhousie University, University of Guelph, University of British Columbia, and University of Saskatchewan.

This edition of the report uses one systemized method to forecast upcoming years’ food price increases and trends. The predictive analysis model was prepared by leveraging Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food along with climate, economic, manufacturing and geopolitical data to predict the year-over-year percent changes in 2026. Eight food categories were assessed—Bakery, Fruit, Dairy & Eggs, Meat, Other, Restaurants, Seafood and Vegetables—as well as the total changes in overall food prices.

The report forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 4% to 6% in 2026. This year’s report considers the following factors as potential contributors to price increases: overhaul of the trading environment in Canada, both internationally and domestically, the “Buy Canadian” movement, tariff disputes, weaker demand for Canadian exports, and lower productivity output, exchange rates and interest rates, climate events, labour disputes, among others.

The report notes that products that fall under the Canada-United States-Mexico trade deal (CUSMA) are exempt from tariffs and that country leaders will be revisiting these terms in 2026, which could impact economic projections.

The report indicated that some Canadian consumers have changed their behaviour in response to increasing food prices. These changes include seeking for deals, sales, and discounts, while others used different methods to save, such as buying fewer non-essential food items, switching to cheaper brands, or shopping at cheaper stores. In addition to money-saving techniques, there is also a growing reliance on hunger-relief organizations, including food banks.

The Government of Canada’s Approach to Measuring Food Insecurity

Food insecurity is defined as the inadequate or insecure access to food due to financial constraints.

Official food insecurity indicators are derived based on responses to 18 self-reporting questions on adults’ (10 questions) and children’s (8 questions) food security experiences, which make up the Household Food Security Survey Module (HFSSM) of the Canadian Income Survey (CIS).

The HFSSM module has been included in the annual Canadian Income Survey (CIS) since 2018. The module was also included in the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) in past years.

Three levels of food insecurity can be derived from HFSSM questions:

‘Marginal food insecurity’: refers to situations where a household responds affirmatively to no more than 1 question in either the adult or children questions. This level of food insecurity reflects indications of worry about running out of food and/or limited food selection due to a lack of money.

‘Moderate food insecurity’: requires 2-5 affirmative responses to adult questions or 2-4 affirmative responses to children questions. This level of food insecurity reflects indications of compromise in quality and/or quantity of food consumed.

‘Severe food insecurity’: requires 6 or more affirmative responses to adult questions or 5 or more affirmative responses to children questions. This level of food insecurity reflects indications of reduced food intake and disrupted eating patterns.

Key food insecurity statistics

The following table shows key food insecurity estimates for the 2018 and 2023 reference years. Data for 2023 is the most recent data available.

Overall Percentage and Number of Canadians Facing Food Insecurity (all levels)

2018

2023

Rate

Number

Rate

Number

Total Population

16.8%

6,099,000

25.5%

9,957,000

Children (under 18 years)

22.2%

1,559,000

32.9%

2,474,000

Seniors (65 years and over)

8.1%

499,000

12.6%

933,000

Men

16.7%

3,022,000

25%

4,857,000

Women

16.8%

3,077,000

26%

5,100,000

Visible minority population

..

..

32.2%

3,953,000

Indigenous population (aged 15+)

28.6%

223,000

38.6%

343,000

Recent immigrants (10 years or less) (aged 15+)

22.2%

538,000

34.4%

1,097,000

Family Types:

Persons in couple families with children

17.9%

2,324,000

28.6%

3,931,000

Persons in lone-parent families

42.2%

674,000

47.8%

1,023,000

Elderly persons not in an economic family

10.4%

191,000

14.3%

275,000

Non-elderly persons not in an economic family

24.5%

1,028,000

31.7%

1,510,000

Source: Canadian Income Survey (Statistics Canada)

Federal action on food insecurity

Budget 2019 announced over $134.4 million in initial investments to support a Food Policy for Canada. Led by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), the policy is meant to ensure that all Canadians “are able to access a sufficient amount of safe, nutritious, and culturally diverse food [and that] Canada’s food system is resilient and innovative, sustains our environment and supports our economy.” The Food Policy for Canada aligns with the objectives of initiatives across the federal government, such as the Canadian Agricultural Partnership, the Heathy Eating Strategy, and the Poverty Reduction Strategy, among others.

As part of the implementation of the Food Policy, AAFC announced the Local Food Infrastructure Fund, a five-year, $60 million initiative, ending March 31, 2024, which supports community-based initiatives to strengthen food systems and improve food access.

Budget 2021 committed to providing $400 million in 2021-22 (extended to 2023-24) to create a temporary Community Services Recovery Fund to help the charitable and non-profit sector adapt and modernize from the challenges faced due to the pandemic. This included organizations that addressed food insecurity and supported access to food.

Budget 2022 included several measures that will help to reduce poverty and inequality. These measures include a comprehensive plan to make housing more affordable, providing dental care for low-income Canadians and implementing an employment strategy for persons with disabilities. The Government continues to work with provincial, territorial and Indigenous partners to implement a Canada-wide, community-based system of quality child care.

In March 2022, a new phase of the Local Food Infrastructure Fund (LFIF) was launched, with an investment of up to $20 million. This funding, available over the next two years, will support community-based and not-for-profit organizations in their efforts to create long-term solutions to address food security challenges.

Also in 2022, the Government announced the Affordability Plan⁠, a suite of measures totaling $12.1 billion in new support to help make life more affordable for millions of Canadians, including enhancements to existing benefits such as the Canada Workers Benefit and Goods and Services Tax Credit, as well as new investments in dental care and housing affordability.

Budget 2023 introduced targeted inflation relief for the most vulnerable Canadians to help support them with the cost of living, including those hardest hit by rising food prices. It introduced a one-time Grocery Rebate, providing $2.5 billion in targeted inflation relief for 11 million low- and modest-income Canadians and families. The Grocery Rebate provided eligible couples with two children with up to an extra $467; single Canadians without children with up to an extra $234; and seniors with an extra $225 on average.

Further, in Budget 2024, the Government committed:

To continuing to help bring down the cost of groceries by implementing measures to strengthen competition in the grocery sector, monitor grocers' work to help stabilize prices, and tackle shrinkflation to uphold the food sizes and qualities Canadians expect.

$62.9 million over three years starting in 2024-25 to renew and expand the Local Food Infrastructure Fund to support community organizations across Canada to invest in local food infrastructure, with priority to be given to Indigenous and Black communities, along with other equity-deserving groups.

A new Canada Disability Benefit with $6.1 billion over six years, and $1.4 billion ongoing, to supplement provincial and territorial benefits, increasing the financial well-being of over 600,000 working-age persons with disabilities. This proposed benefit would provide a maximum benefit of $2,400 per year for low-income, working-age persons with disabilities, and indexed to inflation

In Budget 2025, the Government committed:

In May 2025, the Government introduced legislation to reduce middle-class taxes, saving two-income families up to $840 a year. It is also proposing to cut the goods and services tax on homes at or under $1 million for first-time homebuyers, delivering savings of up to $50,000, and to lower the goods and services tax on homes between $1 million and $1.5 million.

Budget 2024 committed $1 billion over five years in federal funding to create a National School Food Program, to provide up to 400,000 more children healthy meals each year across Canada. For a participating family with two kids in school, this program can result in annual savings of $800 or more. Budget 2025 confirmed that the National School Food Program will be made permanent, with $216.6 million per year, starting in 2029-30. 

The launch of Build Canada Homes and its initial investments are part of the Canadian government’s broader effort to double the pace of housing construction over the next decade. Build Canada Homes has the potential to cut building timelines by up to 50%, reduce costs by as much as 20%, and lower emissions by approximately 20% during construction.  These efforts will ensure that communities across Canada, especially students, seniors, persons with disabilities and equity seeking groups, benefit from more affordable housing as soon as possible. Budget 2025 committed an initial investment of $13 billion over five years on a cash basis, starting in 2025-26, which includes among other commitments:

Protecting existing affordable housing by launching the $1.5 billion Canada Rental Protection Fund under Build Canada Homes.

Providing $1 billion to build transitional and supportive housing for people who are homeless or at risk of homelessness.

Budget 2025 reaffirms the government’s intention to lower barriers to access the Canada Disability Benefit by helping to offset the costs of applying for the Disability Tax Credit for Canada Disability Benefit recipients. To that end, Budget 2025 proposes funding of $115.7 million over four years, beginning in 2026-27, and $10.1 million per year ongoing, including administrative costs, for a one-time supplemental Canada Disability Benefit payment of $150 in respect of each Disability Tax Credit certification, or re-certification, giving rise to a Canada Disability Benefit entitlement.

The Office of the Grocery Sector Code of Conduct (OGSCC) announced on November 28, 2025 the completion of its governance framework, marking a significant milestone in the implementation of the Canada Grocery Code.

With all foundational components finalized, including the Dispute Resolution Management Process (DRMP), which will come into effect January 1, 2026, the OGSCC is now launching its formal recruitment campaign.

KEY FACTS
The 2026 edition of the Canada Food Price Report forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 4% to 6% in 2026.

The 2023 Canadian Income Survey reports 25.5% of the population living in the provinces (approximately 10 million persons) experienced food insecurity in 2023 - the rate was higher amongst children, at 32.9%.

The report notes that the annual food expenditure for a family of four (comprising an adult man (31-50 years old), an adult woman (31-50 years old), a teenage boy (14-18 years old), and a girl (9-13 years old), is projected to increase to $17,572 in 2026. This reflects an increase of up to $995 compared to the observed annual expenditure for a family with the same demographic composition in 2025.

The anticipated rise in food prices is attributed to trade disputes with the United States, shifts in the food manufacturing and retail landscape, labour markets, policy changes, as well as the Canadian dollar outlook.

Five provinces (Alberta, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario, and Quebec) are forecast to see price increases above the national average while British Columbia and Manitoba are projected to shift direction compared to 2025 and fall below the national average. .

The most significant price increases are expected to be in meat (5% to 7%), food from restaurants (4% to 6%) as well as vegetables (3% to 5%). The smallest increases are expected to be in fruits and seafood (1% to 3%).