Question Period Note: 2025 FOOD PRICE INCREASES

Publication of the 2025 Canada Food Price Report

• The Government recognizes that many Canadians continue to struggle because of higher food costs.
• The Government has also made several changes to enhance key programs to improve the ability of Canadians to afford essentials, including food. This includes programs such as the Canada Child Benefit, the enhanced Canada Workers Benefit and Old Age Security. These programs are also indexed to keep pace with the cost of living.
• The Government continues to work to help bring down the cost of groceries by implementing measures to strengthen competition in the grocery sector to help ensure all Canadians can make ends meet.
• The Government will continue to support Canadians by investing in housing, affordable child care, school food for children and lowering everyday costs.

Canada Food Price Report
• The 2025 Canada Food Price Report marks the 15th edition of this publication. The report is produced collaboratively by Dalhousie University, University of Guelph, University of British Columbia, and University of Saskatchewan.

• This edition of the report uses predictive analytics models, including machine learning, to support the process of forecasting future food prices and trends. The report also analyses predicted food costs by various demographics (including age and gender) and different household compositions.

• The report forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 3% to 5% in 2025. This year’s report considers the following factors as potential contributors to price increases: exchange rates and interest rates, climate events, the U.S. election, labour disputes, among others:
o Exchange rates - Canada imports high volumes of food – especially during the winter and food prices will be impacted by exchange rates. The value of the Canadian dollar is likely to remain low against the U.S. This, coupled with increased commodity prices, will impact the price of food for Canadians.

o Weather events and climate - Extreme weather events impact conditions for growing crops and raising livestock in Canada and across the world. Weather events also affect food prices by impacting the supply chain.

• The report indicated that some Canadian consumers have changed their behaviour in response to increasing food prices. These changes include seeking for deals, sales, and discounts, while others used different methods to save, such as buying fewer non-essential food items, switching to cheaper brands, or shopping at cheaper stores. In addition to money-saving techniques, there is also a growing reliance on hunger-relief organizations including food banks.

The Government of Canada’s Approach to Measuring Food Insecurity

• Food insecurity is defined as the inadequate or insecure access to food due to financial constraints.

• Official food insecurity indicators are derived based on responses to 18 self-reporting questions on adults’ (10 questions) and children’s (8 questions) food security experiences, which make up the Household Food Security Survey Module (HFSSM) of the Canadian Income Survey (CIS).

• The HFSSM module has been included in the annual Canadian Income Survey (CIS) since 2018. The module was also included in the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) in past years.

• Three levels of food insecurity can be derived from HFSSM questions:
o ‘Marginal food insecurity’: refers to situations where a household responds affirmatively to no more than 1 question in either the adult or children questions. This level of food insecurity reflects indications of worry about running out of food and/or limited food selection due to a lack of money.

o ‘Moderate food insecurity’: requires 2-5 affirmative responses to adult questions or 2-4 affirmative responses to children questions. This level of food insecurity reflects indications of compromise in quality and/or quantity of food consumed.

o ‘Severe food insecurity’: requires 6 or more affirmative responses to adult questions or 5 or more affirmative responses to children questions. This level of food insecurity reflects indications of reduced food intake and disrupted eating patterns.

Key food insecurity statistics

The following table shows key food insecurity estimates for the 2018 and 2022 reference years. Data for 2022 is the most recent data available.

Overall Percentage and Number of Canadians Facing Food Insecurity (all levels)
2018 2022
Rate Number Rate Number
Total Population 16.8% 6,099,000 22.9% 8,689,000
Children (under 18 years) 22.2% 1,559,000 28.4% 2,100,000
Seniors (65 years and over) 8.1% 499,000 11.7% 841,000
Men 16.7% 3,022,000 22.6% 4,269,000
Women 16.8% 3,077,000 23.1% 4,420,000
Visible minority population .. .. 27.3% 3,007,000
Indigenous population (aged 15+) 28.6% 223,000 35.7% 317,000
Recent immigrants (10 years or less) (aged 15+) 22.2% 538,000 28.4% 775,000
Family Types:
Persons in couple families with children 17.9% 2,324,000 24.7% 3,329,000
Persons in lone-parent families 42.2% 674,000 43.4% 891,000
Elderly persons not in an economic family 10.4% 191,000 13.4% 249,000
Non-elderly persons not in an economic family 24.5% 1,028,000 30.5% 1,402,000
Source: Canadian Income Survey (Statistics Canada)

Federal action on food insecurity
• Budget 2019 announced over $134.4 million in initial investments to support a Food Policy for Canada. Led by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), the policy is meant to ensure that all Canadians “are able to access a sufficient amount of safe, nutritious, and culturally diverse food [and that] Canada’s food system is resilient and innovative, sustains our environment and supports our economy.” The Food Policy for Canada aligns with the objectives of initiatives across the federal government, such as the Canadian Agricultural Partnership, the Heathy Eating Strategy, and the Poverty Reduction Strategy, among others.
• As part of the implementation of the Food Policy, AAFC announced the Local Food Infrastructure Fund, a five-year, $60 million initiative, ending March 31, 2024, which supports community-based initiatives to strengthen food systems and improve food access.
• Budget 2021 committed to providing $400 million in 2021-22 (extended to 2023-24) to create a temporary Community Services Recovery Fund to help the charitable and non-profit sector adapt and modernize from the challenges faced due to the pandemic. This included organizations that addressed food insecurity and supported access to food.
• Budget 2022 included several measures that will help to reduce poverty and inequality. These measures include a comprehensive plan to make housing more affordable, providing dental care for low-income Canadians and implementing an employment strategy for persons with disabilities. The Government continues to work with provincial, territorial and Indigenous partners to implement a Canada-wide, community-based system of quality child care.
• In March 2022, a new phase of the Local Food Infrastructure Fund (LFIF) was launched, with an investment of up to $20 million. This funding, available over the next two years, will support community-based and not-for-profit organizations in their efforts to create long-term solutions to address food security challenges.
• Also in 2022, the Government announced the Affordability Plan⁠, a suite of measures totaling $12.1 billion in new support to help make life more affordable for millions of Canadians, including enhancements to existing benefits such as the Canada Workers Benefit and Goods and Services Tax Credit, as well as new investments in dental care and housing affordability.
• Budget 2023 introduced targeted inflation relief for the most vulnerable Canadians to help support them with the cost of living, including those hardest hit by rising food prices. It introduced a one-time Grocery Rebate, providing $2.5 billion in targeted inflation relief for 11 million low- and modest-income Canadians and families. The Grocery Rebate provided eligible couples with two children with up to an extra $467; single Canadians without children with up to an extra $234; and seniors with an extra $225 on average.
• Further, in Budget 2024, the Government committed:
o $1 billion over five years in federal funding to create a National School Food Program, to provide up to 400,000 more children healthy meals each year across Canada.
o To continuing to help bring down the cost of groceries by implementing measures to strengthen competition in the grocery sector, monitor grocers' work to help stabilize prices, and tackle shrinkflation to uphold the food sizes and qualities Canadians expect.
o $62.9 million over three years starting in 2024-25 to renew and expand the Local Food Infrastructure Fund to support community organizations across Canada to invest in local food infrastructure, with priority to be given to Indigenous and Black communities, along with other equity-deserving groups.

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