Question Period Note: PBO Report – Government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates 2025-2026

What key observations has the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) made about the 2025-26 Government Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates?

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• The Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO) report on the 2025-26 Government Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates summarizes the voted and statutory spending presented.
• The PBO opens the report with a walkthrough of the $486.9B in planned spending included in the 2025-26 Main Estimates, of which $222.9B requires Parliamentary approval.
• Of the $486.9B in planned spending, $294.8B is for money transferred to other levels of government, individuals and organizations, $143.1B is for government operations and capital costs, and $49.1B is for interest on public debt.
• The report notes that Budget 2025 has not been tabled and the PBO anticipates planned spending to increase through Supplementary Estimates.
• The report identifies that Governor General Special Warrants were issued on April 1st and May 16, 2025, totalling $73.4B in spending.
• The Main Estimates 2025-26 will reflect both Special Warrants amounts which will be included in an appropriation act that will be introduced in June 2025.
• The PBO notes that in comparison to the 2024-25 Estimates to date the total budgetary authorities have increased by $0.2B in the 2025-26 Estimates, while not significant this does not include prospective budget measures or future funding needs.
• The report identifies three notable areas of spending for the 2025-26 Main Estimates, all of which are statutory spending (receive Parliamentary approval to spend outside the Estimates process) and are included in the Main Estimates for information only.
• Elderly Benefits forecasted at $85.5B in 2025-26 for Old Age Security, Guaranteed Income Supplement and Allowance Payments that according to PBO is anticipated to increase driven by a large number of seniors and inflation.
• Canada Health Transfer is forecasted at $54.7B and is predicted to reach $64.8B by 2029-30 according to PBO forecasts.
• Public Debt Charges forecasted to be $49.1B for interest on unmatured debt and other interest costs. The PBO anticipates that interest rates will stabilize after 2025-26 slowing the growth of public debt charges.

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